One interactive home base for spotting anomalies in Shopify traffic. Each chart overlays total sessions (blue) with the zero-second / instant-bounce portion (amber) and the conversion rate that results (green). Hover any chart for the exact weekly numbers; click a legend label to isolate a line. Weekly, last two years. Every sessions series reconciles to Shopify's reported totals.
Mirror image of quality: as zero-second share crept up and the traffic mix shifted, blended CVR drifted from ~2.5% to ~1.8%.
Stable bands for two years: YouTube ~80%, Facebook/Instagram/Direct ~73%, Google ~57%. No channel shows an attack-style step-change.
Google (search) leads ~4%. Facebook CVR cratered to ~0.7% in Sep–Oct 2025 then recovered; Instagram is sliding toward ~0.6% now.
| Channel | Sessions (2yr) | Zero-sec % | last 4wk | CVR (wtd) | CVR last4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,019,707 | 74% | 67% | 1.84% | 1.79% | |
| Direct | 9,717,431 | 73% | 68% | 2.52% | 1.61% |
| 1,428,290 | 73% | 73% | 1.89% | 0.87% | |
| Google (organic search) | 2,177,365 | 57% | 53% | 4.11% | 3.44% |
| YouTube | 631,056 | 80% | 72% | 1.06% | 1.09% |
"Direct" (9.7M) absorbs untagged + in-app-browser traffic, so its volume is inflated. TikTok excluded — referral collapsed to ~zero after Nov 2025.
collections/shop & the 30-servings PDP convert highest (~3.7–4.7%); the paid landers (rise-2, compare-listicle, rise-2-coffee) sit ~1.6–1.9% — and slipping.
| Landing page | Sessions (2yr) | Zero-sec % | last 4wk | CVR (wtd) | CVR last4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| /pages/rise-2 | 3,564,702 | 69% | 64% | 1.80% | 1.42% |
| /products/30-servings-tin | 2,090,869 | 73% | 69% | 3.75% | 3.42% |
| / (homepage) | 2,816,017 | 66% | 53% | 2.30% | 1.97% |
| /pages/compare-listicle-og | 327,361 | 72% | 76% | 1.89% | 1.50% |
| /collections/shop | 413,070 | 53% | 46% | 4.71% | 4.19% |
| /pages/rise-2-coffee | 117,830 | 75% | 73% | 1.63% | 1.05% |
| Landing page \ channel | YouTube | Direct | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rise 2 LP | 59% 169k | 65% 127k | 54% 35k | 68% 24k | 73% 76k |
| Compare listicle | 68% 69k | 78% 64k | 68% 23k | — | 82% 9k |
| 30-serving PDP | 81% 10k | 86% 3k | 51% 53k | 89% 6k | 82% 62k |
| Homepage | 50% 6k | 86% 4k | 41% 24k | — | 55% 82k |
| Shop collection | — | — | 31% 6k | — | 51% 19k |
| Rise 2 coffee LP | 70% 8k | 77% 5k | — | — | — |
| Landing page \ channel | YouTube | Direct | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rise 2 LP | 2.17% 169k | 1.38% 127k | 3.23% 35k | 1.46% 24k | 1.14% 76k |
| Compare listicle | 2.13% 69k | 1.10% 64k | 3.44% 23k | — | 1.45% 9k |
| 30-serving PDP | 1.07% 10k | 1.20% 3k | 5.51% 53k | 0.41% 6k | 2.12% 62k |
| Homepage | 2.66% 6k | 0.25% 4k | 2.77% 24k | — | 2.25% 82k |
| Shop collection | — | — | 4.92% 6k | — | 3.46% 19k |
| Rise 2 coffee LP | 1.37% 8k | 0.90% 5k | — | — | — |
Shopify ShopifyQL · sessions · landing_page_path × referrer_name · pulled via Cowork (in-session bridge was down). "Direct" = untagged / in-app-browser traffic. Empty cells = combination below the top-60 reporting cut (very low volume). Conversion rate is Shopify session-based.
| Relationship (weekly, 2 yrs) | Pearson r | Read | weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Instagram zero-second share → Instagram CVR | -0.59 | negative, moderate | 105 |
| Site zero-second share → site CVR | -0.31 | negative, weak | 105 |
| Instagram zero-second share → blended CAC | +0.20 | positive, negligible | 104 |
| Site zero-second share → blended CAC | -0.13 | negative, negligible | 104 |
| Site CVR → blended CAC (reference) | -0.60 | negative, strong | 104 |
r ranges −1 to +1. Near 0 = no linear relationship; ±0.2 weak, ±0.4 moderate, ±0.6 strong. CAC = Daily Stand “Total Blended CAC (DTC)” = total spend ÷ Shopify new customers, aggregated to weeks. Rates plotted only where weekly sessions ≥ 200.
What you’re seeing: the cloud slopes clearly down and left-to-right — weeks when more of Instagram’s traffic bounced instantly are the same weeks IG converted worse. At r = −0.59 this is the strongest relationship on the page: the dots hug the trend line fairly tightly, so IG zero-second share is a genuine read on IG traffic quality. The low-bounce weeks (left) cluster near 2–3% CVR; the high-bounce weeks (right) sag toward ~1%.
What you’re seeing: same downward tilt, but looser — r = −0.31. The dots are more scattered around the line because site-wide bounce blends every channel together, which dilutes the signal any single source carries. The relationship is real but weak: zero-second share nudges sitewide CVR, it doesn’t dictate it.
What you’re seeing: a near-flat, faintly-rising cloud — r = +0.20. This is the chart that tests your hunch directly, and the answer is “barely.” The dots are a shapeless blob: plenty of high-IG-bounce weeks have perfectly normal CAC, and plenty of low-bounce weeks have high CAC. If IG junk traffic were driving CAC, this would slope up hard; it doesn’t.
What you’re seeing: no relationship — r = −0.13, essentially a flat trend line through random scatter. Site-wide bounce share tells you nothing useful about what CAC will be that week. CAC is set by spend levels and channel mix, not by how many sessions bounced.
What you’re seeing: the same scatter story, on a timeline. The red IG-bounce line wanders in a fairly tight band the whole period, while the black CAC line climbs through 2025 — they’re not tracking each other. Eyeball the big CAC swings (e.g. the spring-2025 run-up) and you’ll see IG bounce didn’t move with them. That’s the +0.20 correlation made visible: a weak, mostly-coincidental drift, not a lockstep relationship.
Analyst caveat: blended CAC is driven mostly by paid-spend levels, channel mix and seasonality; Instagram’s zero-second share is one channel’s on-site behavior. The weak positive link likely reflects a shared cause (scaling cold prospecting brings both more instant-bounce IG clicks and higher CAC) rather than zero-second sessions causing CAC. Correlation ≠ causation.